Spatiotemporal Analysis of Water Storage Anomalies and Drought in Nigeria from GRACE Satellite Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55779/ng62618Keywords:
drought severity index, GRACE, groundwater anomalies, Mann–Kendall test, terrestrial water storageAbstract
Nigeria depends heavily on rain-fed agriculture; therefore, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) is essential for effective groundwater resource management. This study leverages GRACE mascon solutions (CSR RL06) covering the period 2002–2024 to analyse TWS variability across Nigeria. Groundwater Anomalies (GWA) and the GRACE Drought Severity Index (GRACE-DSI) were integrated to assess hydrological extremes. Seasonal and interannual variations in TWS were first analysed across major river basins in relation to Nigeria’s climatological cycle. Seasonal decomposition was performed using standard climatological periods: DJF (December–February), MAM (March–May), JJA (June–August), and SON (September–November). Trend analysis was subsequently conducted using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Groundwater anomalies and drought indices were computed using established models. Results indicate a pronounced increase in TWS in northern Nigeria in recent years, particularly between 2018 and 2024, affecting the Sokoto–Rima Basin, Upper and Lower Benue Basins, Lake Chad Basin, and parts of the Niger Basin. Seasonal decomposition reveals increasing TWS across all seasons, with SON exhibiting the highest variability, highlighting its sensitivity to hydrological extremes. The Mann–Kendall results show decreasing trends during MAM and increasing trends during JJA and SON. Basin-scale analysis across major climatic zones (Tropical Savannah – Aw, Tropical Monsoon – Am, and Semi-arid – BSh) demonstrates strong seasonal recharge–depletion cycles, with wet-season recharge (June–September) offset by dry-season depletion (November–April). In contrast, southern Nigeria exhibits declining GRACE-DSI values, indicating a reduction in terrestrial water storage and increasing vulnerability to water stress.
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